6 October 2024
The other day, I came across this fascinating graph - one that charted the oil-to-gold price ratio over the last several decades. At first glance, it seemed like just another set of squiggly lines, but as I studied it, the story it told began to unfold. It was a tale of global conflict, economic crises, technological revolutions, and dramatic shifts in the value of two of the world’s most important commodities: oil and gold. I couldn't help but dive deeper into what this ratio reveals about our world (especially considering that the Yellow metal is up 13% and Brent has gone down 17% in three months), and it turned out to be a lot more than just numbers on a chart... read more
Germany once sailed the seas of global trade like a majestic ship, its towering sails stretched wide with the winds of prosperity. Built on a foundation of industrial steel and powered by the steady, cheap flow of Russian gas, this ship glided effortlessly through the economic waters, cutting through storms that would have sunk lesser vessels. It was the pride of Europe’s fleet, commanding respect and awe from every port... read more
21 September 2024
India's economy is like a roller coaster - thrilling, filled with ups and downs, but ultimately moving forward with great momentum. Let's buckle up and take a ride through the key highlights from the World Bank's latest India Development Update. Don't worry; I promise no scary drops, only smooth explanations with a touch of humour! read more
18 September 2024
For decades, the global economic conversation has largely revolved around two dominant poles - the Western nations and China. But the winds of change are blowing, bringing new opportunities for the Frontier Economies to shape the future. A new group of emerging economies, driven by favorable demographics, digital transformation, and shifting global supply chains, are rising to prominence. Let’s call these emerging nations "The Frontier Economies" – dynamic, handsome, youthful, and rapidly modernizing countries that are shaping the future... read more
24 August 2024
In the past month, particularly during the second week of August, the Indian stock market, represented by the Sensex, has seen significant volatility, causing widespread concern. While market fluctuations are common, the recent instability has raised fears of a potential economic situation in the minds of many. Through this article, I have tried to delve into the potential reasons behind this turmoil and explore why it might signal a larger economic issue on the horizon... read more
26 December 2015
The most arduous undertaking for any country or economy is the structural change and the act of rebalancing. The Dragon Economy has been focused on these for almost half a decade now – trying to transform its growth model, which is today based largely on exports and high investment into been driven by its own consumers. Accomplishment is indispensable if the economy wants to avoid the feared middle-income trap. It is the slowdown that most growing economies encounter when they reach the income levels comparable to that of China as of today... read more
27 December 2014
Oil prices have plummeted ~ 50% since mid of this year, worthy news for oil-importing nations, but evil news for exporting countries such as Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.
Some attribute the price drop to the US shale-energy boom and others cite OPEC’s failure to agree on restrictions for the supply.
But that only seems to be part of the whole story. The price of iron ore, gold, and silver are down too. And let’s not forget the same is true for sugar, cotton, and soybean prices. In fact, the truth, not glanced by many is that most of the dollar commodity prices have fallen since the first half of the year. Not forgetting that a host of sector based factors affect the price of respective commodity, the fact that the decline is so broad – as is often the case with giant price swings, only suggests that macroeconomic factors are at labor... read more
31 August 2014
As opposed to the general assumption, economic growth in Europe remains disappointing even today. Virtually all Union members are expected to post higher output in the current calendar year but, according to the IMF’s latest projections, the growth rate in the eurozone will barely exceed 1%. In addition, whereas the British economy is displaying strong momentum of growth, its GDP has only now surpassed the pre-crisis mark. In per capita terms, European Union is still poorer than it was seven years ago... read more
6 October 2013
Since the Great Recession officially ended, productivity of American work force and those getting lucky enough to have jobs has risen smartly. Nevertheless, United States still has approximately two million fewer jobs than before, the unemployment rate is stuck at levels not seen since the early 1990’s and the proportion of adults who are working is four percentage points off its peak.
This job drought has spurred pundits to wonder whether a profound employment sickness has overtaken and from there, it’s only a short leap to ask whether that illness isn’t productivity itself. Have we mechanized and computerized ourselves into obsolescence?... read more
30 September 2013
Canada, a country having GDP of 1.7 trillion US dollars, sharing its borders with the Global leader and having a currency, which is amongst the most traded in the world. The mingled nature of this country certainly makes an impact on the global economy and any happening around the world should ideally be benefiting or hammering this economy too. Nevertheless, the said has not been the case, the monetary and fiscal policy have been so strong and vibrant that the Global Financial Crisis too did not affect this economy as it would have to other countries... read more
10 September 2013
“US is healing... if the Fed doesn't screw it up”, the buzz line is in the news all over, and the question arises, is there anything left to screw up, that the media is still hoping them not to screw it up. Absurd statement but that is the truth. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, God of the Modern World, one statement on an issue and markets all around the globe react. His stances in recent times, which is challengeable and the same shall form the crux of this article, being that ‘quantitative easing shall have to continue until sometime now’. Obviously, after making a withdrawal statement in June, the reasons for reversal had to be issued, and that was, the dual mandate needs to be met, unemployment and inflation, was this not known before? read more
6 September 2013
Unemployment is in current parlance only associated with the United States of America; in effect, the other countries of the world are either ignored or forgotten. Did we know, the total number of unemployed in the G-20 nations is approximately 100 million and the same increases every passing day?
Therefore, are we now seeing the truth of a systemic unemployment crisis, which is not only restricted to America but also faced by many other economies of the world? read more
20 August 2013
19 August 2013
9 August 2013
Cash infusion from China, will it help save Detroit?
The bankruptcy of Detroit has experienced much revitalization; most of the city outside Motown's centre and Woodward Avenue corridor suffers, thanks to Gilbert and Ilitch. In the late 90's being home to over 1.8 million, city's population has cratered over the decade and now stands at just over 0.7 million. Uttering of home, authority of this city of houses, not apartments, has dismantled thousands of homes. Empty for years now; homeowners simply walked away to other places, as that option was a more favourable proposition... read more
8 August 2013
Well, confusion would set in, counting the number of zeros. They are 15 in all, post the 1. A quadrillion yen is approximately 10.5 trillion US dollars. To compare with some other economies, it is an amount, which is larger than the combined economy of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. What is this figure we are talking of? It is the astounding amount of debt, Japan holds today, and I am sure, it is hard to even get our mind around it... read more
7 August 2013
When Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd announced its annual results for last fiscal this year, B Prasad Rao, the Chairman of the company, surprised investors and analysts by claiming fresh order for the company had jumped approximately 44 per cent to INR 31,530 crore and this came in when launch of new power projects was at an all-time low. Rao in addition also built positive sentiment by pinning his hopes on continued orders from public sector in the near future... read more
6 August 2013
Japan is at War. Infact it has been at this war for more than two decades now and the enemy is the kingdom itself.
Japan, the third largest economy and probably the most technologically advanced nation in the world, has been marred by deflation and sluggish growth for more than thirty years. Despite constant efforts by Bank of Japan and the Government, the economic growth refuses to pick up. More than any economic or technical factor, it is the mindset of its own citizens that Japan is trying to battle (and hopefully change)... read more
24 July 2013
Banking has been an integral component of every economy. In India too, it has evolved through a long journey and has attained pinnacles over the period. Today, it stands tall with a strong pillar base comprising of the nationalised banks, private banks and foreign banks. There has been a tremendous change in the way banks operate in terms of use of technology, managing customer relations, development of new products, etc. The only thing, which has remained static, is the fundamentals of banking... read more
20 July 2013
This was rather shocking to me, when it came to my knowledge and it certainly would set disturbance in motion, Fed currently has a Reserve of monies deposited by the US banks to a tune of 1.8 trillion dollars. In addition, the Fed to banks, who are supposedly the owners of these funds, pays an interest... read more